March 27, 2013

The Prisoner's Paradox Revisited
by Richard Bedient


Awaiting the dawn sat three prisoners wary
A trio of brigands named Tom, Dick, and Mary
Sunrise would signal the death knoll of two
Just one would survive, the question was who

Young Mary sat thinking and finally spoke
To the jailer she said, "You may think this a joke.
But it seems that my odds of surviving 'til tea,
Are clearly enough just out of three.

But one of my cohorts must certainly go,
Without question, that's something I already know.
Telling the name of one who is lost,
Can't possible help me. What could it cost?"

That shriveled old jailer himself was no dummy,
He thought, "But why not?" and pointed to Tommy.
"Now it's just Dick and I," Mary chortled with glee.
"One in two are my chances, and not one in three!"

Imagine the jailer's chagrin, that old elf.
She'd tricked him, or had she? Decide for yourself.

  • Bedient, R. (1994). The Prisoner's Paradox Revisited. American Mathematical Monthly, 101 (3): 249.

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